000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292035 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 133W south of 15N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to a weak 1012 mb low pressure area off Costa Rica near 09N85W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to 08N131W. No significant convection is evident. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 33N127W to south of Cabo San Lucas. The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California south of 30N. The gradient is tighter farther north, confirmed by a recent ship observation about 210 nm west of Ensenada which indicated 25 kt NE winds and seas to 9 ft. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed wave heights to 8 ft west of Guadalupe Island. This is related to long period northerly swell entering the region. Elsewhere, a pair of earlier altimeter satellite passes confirmed wave heights of 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4 to 6 ft off Baja California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California Norte tonight and persist into late next week as northerly swell enters the region. Wave heights may be as high as 8 to 10 ft, and continue southward off Baja California Sur as far as Cabo San Lazaro by tonight. Farther south, expect strong to near-gale gap winds and rough seas late tonight and Sun as an early season cold front moves through the western Gulf of Mexico and across the Tehuantepec isthmus. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally moderate wave heights in this area. Slight to moderate seas are north of the monsoon trough off northern Central America. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the region through late next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm wave heights to 8 ft over the waters north of 28N. This is related to northerly swell entering the region. Elsewhere, wave heights are 5 to 7 ft, north of the ITCZ, although may be reaching as high as 8 ft near 15N130W where fresh winds are following the passage of the tropical wave. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds occurring south of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist east of 120W. For the forecast, the fresh NE to E trade winds will expand westward Sun following tropical wave will move west of the region. The northerly swell to 8 ft will continue to propagate southward, staying mainly north of 20N, but mixing with the shorter period wind waves from 12N to 20N west of 130W through mid week. Farther east, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 130W starting mid week as high pressure builds north of the region. $$ Christensen