000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290721
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 128W south of 15N, moving W 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to 10N124W to 12N136W. The monsoon trough is noted from 12N136W
to 12N140W. No significant convection is evident.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 32N127W 
to near Punta Eugenia. The moderate pressure gradient as the 
result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico 
supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California. Seas are 5 
to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4 to 6 ft off Baja 
California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are 
occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light
to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 2 to 4 
ft seas.

For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California Norte
today and persist into late next week as northerly swell enters 
the region. Wave heights may be as high as 8 to 10 ft, and 
continue southward off Baja California Sur as far as Cabo San 
Lazaro by tonight. Farther south, expect strong to near-gale gap
winds and rough seas late today and Sun as an early season cold 
moves through the western Gulf of Mexico and across the 
Tehuantepec isthmus. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate southerly flow continues into the 
monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama with generally 
moderate wave heights in this area. Slight to moderate seas are 
north of the monsoon trough off northern Central America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the region through late next 
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 
5-7 ft. NW to N swell is producing seas of 6 to 7 ft north of 25N
and east of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds 
occurring south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the area of fresh trade winds will expand from
the ITCZ to 23N between 120W and 140W through Sun, with the 
higher winds spreading west across this area. Winds south of the
ITCZ and west of 120W will remain moderate to locally fresh 
through the weekend. Long- period NW-N swell is expected to enter
the northern waters early Sat morning and affect the waters from
20N-30N over the weekend with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead,
a cold front could enter the northern waters Tue, with fresh N 
winds and NW to N swell behind it.

$$
KONARIK