000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282030
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 125W south of 15N, moving W 
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N78W
to 10N130W to 13N140W. No significant convection is evident.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 32N127W 
to near Punta Eugenia. The moderate pressure gradient as the 
result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico 
supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte and 
gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California
Sur. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4 to 6
ft off Baja California Sur. Moderate NW to N winds are occurring
in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light to 
gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 2 to 4 ft 
seas.

For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California
Norte Sat and persist through the middle of next week as 
northerly swell enters the region. Wave heights may be as high as
8 to 10 ft, and continue southward off Baja California Sur as 
far as Cabo San Lazaro by Sat night. Farther south, expect strong
to nea-gale gap winds and rough seas late Sat and Sun as an 
early season cold moves through the western Gulf of Mexico and 
across the Tehuantepec isthmus. 


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass confirmed gentle to 
moderate southerly flow into the monsoon trough south of Costa 
Rica and Panama. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed 
generally moderate wave heights in this area. Another altimeter 
pass also indicated slight to moderate seas north of the monsoon 
trough off northern Central America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the region through the middle 
of next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 
5-7 ft. NW to N swell is producing seas of 6 to 7 ft north of 25N
and east of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds 
occurring south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the area of fresh trade winds will expand from
the ITCZ to 23N between 120W and 140W through Sun, with the 
higher winds spreading west across this area. Winds south of the
ITCZ and west of 120W will remain moderate to locally fresh 
through the weekend. Long- period NW-N swell is expected to enter
the northern waters early Sat morning and affect the waters from
20N-30N over the weekend with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead,
a cold front could enter the northern waters Tue, with fresh N 
winds and NW to N swell behind it.

$$
Christensen