000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 123W south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica near 08N85W to 10N120W to 10N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N127W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 105W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure system near 31N129W to near Punta Eugenia. The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte and gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft off Baja California Sur. Moderate NW to N winds are occurring in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, wave heights will increase off Baja California Norte Sat through the middle of next week as northerly swell enters the region. Wave heights may be as high as 8 ft, and continue southward off Baja California Sur as far as Cabo San Lazaro by Sat night. Farther south, expect fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas late Sat and Sun as an early season cold moves through the western Gulf of Mexico and across the Tehuantepec isthmus. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed gentle to moderate southerly flow into the monsoon trough south of Costa Rica and Panama. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed generally moderate wave heights in this area. An earlier altimeter pass also indicated slight to moderate seas north of the monsoon trough off northern Central America. For the forecast, Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected to persist south of the monsoon trough through today, diminishing into the weekend. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate NE to E in the mornings and into the early afternoons Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N, and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. NW to N swell is producing seas of 6 to 7 ft north of 25N and east of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds occurring south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the area of fresh trade winds will expand from the ITCZ to 23N between 120W and 140W through Sun, with the higher winds spreading west across this area. Winds south of the ITCZ and west of 120W will remain moderate to locally fresh through the weekend. Long- period NW-N swell is expected to enter the northern waters early Sat morning and affect the waters from 20N-30N over the weekend with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front could enter the northern waters Tue, with fresh N winds and NW to N swell behind it. $$ Christensen