000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272039 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 118W south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 10N between 113.5W and 116.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N103W to 12N119W to 10N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 78W to 87W, from 06.5N to 10N between 91W and 103W, and from 08.5N to 12.5N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system, located well northwest of the offshore waters near 34N133W, extends ridging southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the aforementioned subtropical ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico supports moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte and gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are 6-9 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 4-7 ft off Baja California Sur. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows light to gentle winds in the southern Gulf of California, while moderate NW to N winds are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California. 1-3 ft seas prevail in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are found over the rest of the area with 4-5 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California through Fri, increasing to moderate to locally fresh Fri night through the weekend. Seas well offshore Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft by early Fri morning, then increase to above 8 ft again late Sat through Mon. NW winds will increase to fresh speeds in the Gulf of California Fri afternoon through Sat before diminishing Sat night. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds will continue through Fri. A gap wind event will bring strong to near gale force N winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat afternoon through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters south of Panama and Costa Rica. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows moderate to locally fresh SW winds S of 07.5N offshore Costa Rica and well offshore Panama, where seas are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are prevalent with seas 4-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough through Fri, diminishing into the weekend. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate to fresh NE to E in the mornings and into the early afternoons Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 19N, and W of 119W. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. NW to N swell is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 25N and east of 126W. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder of the area. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows moderate to fresh SE to S winds occurring south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the area of fresh trade winds will expand from the ITCZ to 23N between 120W and 140W Fri through Sun, with the stronger winds drifting W across this area during that time. Winds south of the ITCZ and west of 120W will diminish tonight, then increase to fresh SE over the weekend. Long-period NW-N swell currently in the northeast waters will decay tonight into early Fri, decreasing to less than 8 ft. Another NW to N swell event is expected to enter the northern waters early Sat morning and affect the waters from 20N-30N over the weekend with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, a cold front could enter the northern waters around Tue, with fresh N winds and NW to N swell behind it. $$ Hagen