000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 118W, south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 14N and between 118W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica near 10N85W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N104W to 13N118W to 1011 mb low pres near 12N122W to 10N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N127W to 11N136W to 11N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 09N between 77W and 86W, from 07N to 10N between 91W and 102W, and from 08N to 13N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system, located well northwest of the offshore waters, extends ridging southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the aforementioned subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the SW United States supports fresh NW winds offshore Baja California Norte and gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are 6-9 ft offshore Baja California Norte and 5-7 ft off Baja California Sur. Gentle to moderate winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are found in the rest of the area with 4-5 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are forecast to prevail across the waters west of Baja California through the upcoming weekend. Seas well offshore Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft by early Fri morning. NW winds will increase to fresh speeds in the southern and central Gulf of California Fri afternoon through Fri night before diminishing Sat. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the moderate N winds will diminish to light this afternoon. A gap wind event will bring strong to near gale force N winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat afternoon through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters south of Panama and off NW Colombia, while another cluster of showers and storms is located offshore eastern El Salvador from 11.5N to 13N between 88W and 90W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring S of 07N, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate ENE winds are likely occurring in the Papagayo region with 4-5 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are prevalent with seas 4-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough through Fri, diminishing into the weekend. Winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh NE to E in the mornings and into the early afternoons Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 19N, and W of 119W. Seas in these waters are 6-7 ft. NW to N swell is producing seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 25N and east of 127W. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder of the area. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the area of fresh trade winds will expand from the ITCZ to 23N between 120W and 140W Fri through Sun, with the stronger winds drifting W across this area during that time. Winds south of the ITCZ and west of 120W will diminish tonight, then increase to fresh SE over the weekend. Long-period NW-N swell currently in the northeast waters will decay tonight into early Fri, decreasing to less than 8 ft. Another NW to N swell event is expected to enter the northern waters early Sat morning and affect the waters from 22N-30N over the weekend with seas of 8 to 9 ft. $$ Hagen