000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 116W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 16N and between 113W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Costa Rica near 11N86W to 10N100W to 13N115W to 11N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N125W to 10N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N and between 90W and 93W and also from 07N to 13N and between 102W and 112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N and W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1027 mb high pressure system, located well northwest of the offshore waters, extends southwestward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the aforementioned subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the SW United States support moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters north of Cape San Lazaro. Seas are 6-9 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring north of 29N. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds were captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass in the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds are found in the rest of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds were also depicted by the recent scatterometer satellite pass in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, especially north of 15N. Seas are 3-5 ft in these waters. In the remaining offshore waters of Mexico, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW-N winds are forecast across most of the offshore waters of Baja California through the period. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft early Fri. A tight gradient associated to building high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front this weekend is expected to result in strong to near gale force north winds and building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into early Sun. Winds may occasionally gust to gale force Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters south of Panama and off NW Colombia, while the remaining portion of the basin continues with tranquil weather conditions. Moderate southerly winds persist south of 10N. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds are prevalent. Seas in the 4-5 ft range prevail across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough through Fri, diminishing into the weekend. Light winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh northeast to east speeds in the mornings and into the early afternoons Sun through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the north Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. This was confirmed by the latest scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring north of 29N and E of 123W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue W of 115W through the forecast period, slacking somewhat on Fri as the ridge briefly weakens. Long-period NW-N swell currently in the northeast waters will decay today into early Fri, decreasing to less than 8 ft. Another swell event is expected in these waters starting Sat into early next week, seas peaking near 10 ft. $$ DELGADO