235 
AXPZ20 KNHC 270313
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 115W, south of 17N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to
16N and between 110W and 120W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica near 11N86W to 10N100W to 13N115W to 11N125W. The ITCZ
stretches from 11N125W to 09N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 10N and between 87W and 92W and
also from 08N to 13N and between 100W and 110W. Similar 
convection is seen from 06N to 14N and W of 122W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
north Pacific and lower pressures over the SW United States
continue to sustain moderate to fresh northerly winds across the
offshore waters N of Cape San Lazaro. Seas in these waters are
6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N120W. Light to
gentle northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the
remaining offshore waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas of 1-2 ft are found in the northern Gulf
of California. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted
in the rest of the Gulf. 

During the last couple of days, a cold front has been moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. A building ridge behind the front and
lower pressures in the deep tropics has generated a moderate 
pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, resulting in 
moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere 
in the offshore waters of Mexico, moderate or weaker winds and 
seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are 
expected across most of the offshore waters of Baja California 
through the period. Seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft 
early Fri. A tight gradient associated to building high pressure 
behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front this weekend is expected to 
result in strong to near gale force north winds and building seas
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into early Sun. Winds may 
occasionally gust to gale force Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found within 100 nm
of the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama and NW Colombia. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions persist, especially outside of
the influence of the monsoon trough. 

Moderate southerly winds continue across the waters south of 10N,
along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, light to
gentle variable winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 
moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough through 
the rest of the week, diminishing into the weekend. Light winds 
in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh northeast to east 
speeds in the mornings and into the early afternoons Sun through 
early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored near 37N137W and continues to
influence the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to
fresh easterly winds N of 12N and W of 115W. Seas in these waters
are primarily 6-8 ft, except for a northerly swell region of 6-9
ft in the NE corner of the basin. South of the monsoon trough, 
moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring along with seas 
of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 4-6 
ft are noted.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken
as it moves eastward through Fri in response to a cold front 
that will be crossing 140W, but well north of 30N. Long-period 
NW-N swell is moving through the northeast waters of the area. 
Seas are forecast to be in the range of about 7-10 ft, with the 
highest expected north of 29N. The swell will decay from Thu into
early Fri, decreasing to less than 8 ft.

$$
DELGADO