000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 04N to 17N. It is 
moving westward at an estimated speed of 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N 
to 10N. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward
to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and to 09N84W
to low pressure near 10N92W 1011 mb to low pressure near 10N107W
1011 mb to 13N113W to low pressure near 11N122W 1011 mb to
12N130W to low pressure near 11N136W 1011 mb and to 09N140W. 
Numerous moderate convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 
108W-112W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N 
between 116W-120W, also from 08N to 10N between 127W-135W and 
within 120 nm south of the trough between 83W-85W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gradient associated to high pressure centered well northwest
of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest to north 
winds over the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cape 
San Lazaro, with wave heights of 6-8 ft. Stronger winds are 
present north of the offshore waters behind a cold front that 
stretches from southern California to 32N120W, westward to 
32N130W and northwestward from there, where it becomes 
stationary. Northwest to north swell generated by the stronger 
winds has started to propagate through the waters west of 
northern Baja California north of 29N. As a result, wave heights
over these waters are reaching the range of 7-10 ft, the highest
of which is north of 29N.

Elsewhere over the offshore waters of Baja California, light to 
gentle northwest to north winds are present along with wave 
heights of about 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light and 
variable winds are in the central part, light to gentle northwest 
winds are in the southern part and gentle to moderate southeast
to south winds are in the northern part. Wave heights are in the
range of 3-4 ft, except for lower wave heights of 1-3 ft in the 
northern part of the Gulf.

In the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle westerly winds are noted there.
Wave heights over these offshore waters are 3-5 ft due to a 
south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are 
expected across most of the offshore waters of Baja California 
through the period. Seas are forecast build to 10 ft early Thu, 
subsiding below 8 ft early Fri. A tight gradient associated to 
building high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front this 
weekend is expected to result in strong to near gale force north 
winds and building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night
into early Sun Winds may occasionally gust to gale force Sat 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 nm 
offshore southern Costa Rica, and also downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo from 03N to 08N between 77W-80W. Isolated small showers
and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the coast of Central 
America. Generally, tranquil weather conditions are in place over
these offshore waters. Latest ASCAT data passes reveal gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon 
trough. Wave heights over these waters are 4-6 ft due to a south
to southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and wave 
heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell continue.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest 
of the week, diminishing into the weekend. Light winds in the 
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh northeast to east speeds 
in the mornings and into the early afternoons on Sun and Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered well 
northwest of the discussion area and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics continue to support moderate to fresh northeast to east 
trade winds north of about 11N and west of 115W as noted recent 
ASCAT data passes over these waters. Wave heights over this part 
of the area are in the 6-8 ft range due to a combination of waves
generated by the persistence of the trade winds and the presence
of northeast to east swell over these waters. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring 
along with wave heights of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft are present.

For the forecast, the high pressure center well northwest of 
the discussion area will gradually weaken as it moves east-
southeastward through Fri in response to a cold front that will 
be crossing 140W, but well north of 30N. Long-period northwest 
to north swell is moving through the northeast waters of the 
area. Wave heights are forecast to be in the range of about 7-10
ft, with the highest expected north of 29N. The swell will decay
from Thu into early Fri, at which time the wave heights lower to
less than 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre