301 
AXPZ20 KNHC 262048 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 113W from 04N to 17N. It is 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near 
the trough axis, primarily from 06N to 14N and between 107W and 
117W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward
to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and to 09N84W
to low pressure near 11N91W 1010 mb to low pressure near 10N105W
1011 MB to 12N115W to low pressure near 11N121W 1011 mb to
12N130W to low pressure near 11N136W 1011 mb and to 09N140W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 12N between 114W-118W, and within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 108W-114W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 103W-108W and within 30 
nm south of the trough between 93W-95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

The gradient associated to strong high pressure centered well 
northwest of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest 
to north winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, 
mainly north of Cape San Lazaro, with wave heights of 6-8 ft. 
Stronger winds are present north of the offshore waters behind a 
cold front that stretches from southern California to 32N125W 
and west-northwest from there to near 34N133W. Northwest to 
north swell generated by the stronger winds has started to 
propagate through the waters west of northern Baja California, 
north of 29N. Wave heights over these waters are reaching 8-9 ft.
Elsewhere over the offshore waters of Baja California, light to 
gentle northwest to north winds are present along with wave 
heights of about 4-6 ft. Moderate northwest winds are in the 
Gulf of California, except for light to gentle winds in the 
northern part. Wave heights are in the range of 3-4 ft, except 
for lower wave heights of 1-3 ft in the northern part of the 
Gulf.

In the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle westerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft 
are prevalent. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NW winds are expected
across most of the offshore waters of Baja California through
early next week, decreasing somewhat Thu into Fri. Wave heights 
are forecast build to 10 ft early Thu, subsiding to less than 8 
ft early Fri. A tight gradient associated to building high 
pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front this weekend is 
expected to result in strong to near gale force north winds and 
building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds may have 
possible occasional gusts to gale force Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 to 90 nm 
offshore Panama and southern Costa Rica, and also downwind 
of the Gulf of Papagayo from 04N to 06N between 77W-80W.
Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the 
coast of Central America. Generally, tranquil weather conditions
are in place over these offshore waters. Overnight ASCAT data 
passes indicate that moderate southerly winds are present south 
of 11N. Wave heights over these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south 
to southwest swell continue.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest 
of the week, diminishing into the weekend. Light winds in the 
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh northeast to east speeds 
in the mornings and into the early afternoons on Sun and Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered 
well northwest of the discussion area and lower pressures in the
deep tropics continue to support moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds north of about 11N and west of 110W as noted in an 
overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Wave heights over these 
waters are in the 6-8 ft range. South of the monsoon trough, 
moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring along with wave 
heights of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and wave 
heights of 4-6 ft are present.

For the forecast, the ridge supporting the wind regime over the 
waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 110W will gradually 
weaken as it moves eastward in response to a new cold front that
will moving toward southern California. A new set of long-period
northwest swell is moving through the northeast waters of the 
area. Wave heights with this set of northwest swell are expected 
to be in the range of about 7-10 ft. The swell will decay from 
Thu into early Fri, at which time the wave heights lower to less 
than 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre