000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 110W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the trough axis, mainly south of 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N105W to a 1011 mb low pres near 12N119W to another 1011 mb low pres near 12N134W to 10N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N and E of 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 15N and between 111W and 117W and also from 08N to 11N and between 129W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge over the north Pacific extends southwestward toward the Revillagigedo Islands and supports moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, primarily north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the remaining waters off Baja California. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds are found in the Gulf of California, mainly in the central and southern portions of the basin. Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle westerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. The exception is gentle to moderate west-northwest winds near the coasts of Michoacan and Jalisco. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California during the next several days. However, a cold front will move toward southern California Wed into Thu. This will cause winds in the northern section of the Baja California offshore waters increase to fresh speeds and seas to build to 10 ft. In the Gulf, winds will turn around to the southwest late Wed and increase to moderate speeds. These winds then become mainly moderate NW-N starting late Thu along with wave heights of 3-4 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms over southern Central America and NW Colombia are also affecting the nearshore waters, while fairly tranquil weather conditions are found away from the monsoon trough in the rest of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh NE-E winds on Sun and into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An expansive subtropical ridge maintains control of the open eastern tropical Pacific waters and supporting tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the 1036 mb high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the monsoon trough and W of 110W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the ridge supporting the wind regime over the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 110W will gradually weaken as it moves eastward. A new set of long-period northwest swell will build wave heights to the range of 7-10 ft over the NE part of the remainder of the area waters beginning Wed night. $$ DELGADO