000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 04N to 17N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near where the wave crosses the monsoon trough from 08N to 10N between the wave and 110W and within 60 nm east of the wave from 08N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N99W to 10N110W to 12N118W to low pressure near 13N134W 1011 mb and to 11N136W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 89W-91W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 91W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the trough between 115W-118W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 110W-115W and also between 121W-124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the area is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the Baja California offshore waters. The gradient between it and relatively lower pressure to its east is allowing for mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over Baja California offshore waters along with wave heights of 5-7 ft. A partial ASCAT data pass indicated moderate to fresh northwest winds in the central section of the Gulf of California and gentle northwest winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Wave heights of 3-4 ft are over the Gulf of California, except for slightly higher wave heights of 3-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf due to a southeast to south swell. Light to gentle west to northwest winds along with wave heights of 4-6 ft are noted over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with the exception of gentle to moderate west-northwest winds near the coasts of Michoacan and Jalisco. For the forecast, the high pressure over the areas will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California during the next several days maintaining generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds, except winds will increase to mainly fresh speeds over the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning late on Wed afternoon or evening. Wave heights are expected to build to 10 ft over these waters. Moderate to fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California will become light and variable in the central section of the Gulf on Wed, moderate southeast to south in the northern section and gentle northwest to north in the southern section. Wave heights will change little on Wed. A cold front north of the area will move east-southeast toward southern California Wed into Thu. This will cause winds in the northern section of the Gulf to veer around to the southwest late Wed and increase to moderate speeds. These winds then become mainly moderate northwest to north starting late Thu along with wave heights of 3-4 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing over the interior sections of Costa Rica and Panama. Similar activity is occurring over the Gulf of Panama and south of there from 04N to 08N between 77W-81W. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are well west of northern Panama along and near the monsoon trough as described above. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Generally, light to gentle easterly winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light winds in the Papagayo region will become fresh northeast to east winds on Sun, then diminish to gentle speeds Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1031 mb high pressure is well northwest of the area, with broad high pressure ridging extending from it over the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds to exist north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ as seen in recent ASCAT data passes. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted from 13N to 15N between 115W-119W. Wave heights peaking to 8 ft are within the area moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds. However, these wave heights are forecast to lower below 8 ft by early Wed evening as the trade winds diminish some along with north swell that is over this same area. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to fresh southerly winds are present along with wave heights of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure controlling the wind regime over the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of about 110W will gradually weaken as it shifts east-southeastward through late in the week in response to a cold front that will be progressing eastward well to the northwest of area. A new set of long-period northwest swell will build wave heights to the range of 7-10 ft over the northeast part of the remainder of the area waters beginning Wed night. $$ Aguirre