000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252013 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near where the wave crosses the monsoon trough from 07N to 09N between 105W-108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 09N100W to 12N115W to 13N124W to low pressure near 14N130W 1010 MB and to 12N134W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 NM north of the trough between 116W-122W, within 180 nm south of the trough between 119W-125W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 88W-90W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 111W-113W, within 120 NM north of the trough between 101W-104W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 95W-101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected High pressure over the area is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the Baja California offshore waters. The gradient between it and low pressure troughing to the east over the Gulf of California area is allowing for mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds over Baja California offshore waters along with wave heights of 5-7 ft. An overnight ASCAT data pass indicated moderate to fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Wave heights of 3-5 ft are over the Gulf of California, except for slightly lower wave heights of 2-4 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. Over the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle west to northwest winds along with wave heights of 4-6 ft are present there, except for gentle to moderate west- northwest winds near the coasts of Michoacan and Jalisco. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California during the next several days maintaining generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds, except winds will increase to mainly fresh speeds over the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning late on Wed. Wave heights are expected to build to 10 ft over these waters. Moderate to fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California will become light and variable over most of the Gulf on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over central Panama and its coastal waters. Similar activity is occurring over the Gulf of Panama and south of there from 04N to 08N between 77W-81W. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are well west of northern Panama along and near the monsoon trough as described above. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough along with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Generally, light to gentle easterly winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. Light to locally moderate variable winds will occur in the Papagayo region during the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1030 mb high pressure is well northwest of the area near 36N142W, with broad high pressure ridging extending from it over the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds to exist north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Northeast winds of fresh speeds are associated with clusters of scattered moderate convection that are noted from 13N to 15N between 116W-120W. Recent satellite imagery shows that this convection is on the decreasing trend. The persistence of the moderate to fresh trade winds has built the wave heights of up to 8 ft from about 12N to 20N and between 128W-140W. These wave heights are forecast to drop below 8 ft by about late Wed night as the trade winds diminish some along with north swell that is over this same area. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, moderate to fresh southerly winds are present along with wave heights of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will be the main feature controlling the wind regime over the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of about 110W through at least Thursday. A new set of long-period northwest swell will build wave heights to the range of 8-10 ft over the northeast part of the remainder of the area waters beginning Wed afternoon. $$ Aguirre