000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 105W, south of 17N, moving W 
at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the southern portion
of the trough axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 11N110W to a 1010 mb low pres near 13N131W to 11N136W.
The ITCZ stretches from 11N136W to 10N140W and beyond. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N and between 87W and 
101W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N 
to 17N and between 111W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends southwestward toward the Revillagigedo
Islands and maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions across
the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail N of Cape San Lazaro. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent in the
remainder of the offshore waters. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
in the north and central parts of the Gulf of California waters. 
Seas of 4-6 ft are found in these waters. Moderate to 
occasionally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present
in the rest of the Gulf. 

Elsewhere in the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to locally moderate westerly winds and seas 
of 4-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the 
offshore forecast waters of Baja California during the next 
several days, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. The
fresh to locally strong N winds in the Gulf of California will diminish
to mainly fresh speeds today and become light and variable early
on Wed. Northerly winds will increase to fresh in the offshore
waters of northern Baja California late Wed into Thu. Seas will
build to 10 ft in the northernmost waters. 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A few showers over central Panama are affecting the local nearshore
waters, while the rest of the convection in the region is
associated with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are noted S of 09N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to 
gentle easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will persist south of the monsoon trough through the rest of
the week. Light to locally moderate variable winds will occur in
the Papagayo region during the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure persists near 36N140W and dominates most
of the eastern tropical Pacific. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports 
moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the region. This
was captured by a recent scatterometer (ASCAT) satellite pass. 
ASCAT also indicate that strong winds are occurring near 14N118W
in association with the deep convection in the area. Seas are 6-8
ft N of 12N. Farther south, moderate to fresh southerly winds 
are present south of the monsoon trough. Seas in these waters 
are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the NW-N swell across the northern waters will
gradually decay through tonight, allowing for the seas to 
subside below 8 ft. High pressure will be the main feature 
controlling the wind regime over the waters north of the monsoon 
trough and west of about 110W through at least Thursday. A new 
set of long-period NW swell will bring wave heights of 8-10 ft 
to the northeast part of the remainder of the area waters 
beginning Wed afternoon.

$$
DELGADO