066 
AXPZ20 KNHC 242124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 03N to 17N. It is 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are ahead of the wave along and near the monsoon trough from 08N
to 10N between the wave and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low near the 
coast of northwest Colombia, westward to 09N84W and continues to 
09N91W to 09N100W to 09N105W, then northwestward to 13N11W and 
to 11N121W to 13N130W to beyond the area at 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of 
the trough between 116W-120W, within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 128W-130W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 
106W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south 
of the trough between 98W-101W, and also within 30 nm south of 
the trough between 127W-130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient related to high pressure building over the
area and the western part of a cold front that is over the  
northern Gulf of California is resulting in gentle to moderate 
northwest winds west of northern Baja California along with wave 
heights of 7-9 ft due to a long-period swell.

In the Gulf of California, a recent ASCAT data pass indicated 
fresh to strong north winds from 29N to 31N. Wave heights with 
these winds are in the range of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, along the 
coast of Mexico light to gentle westerly winds continue along 
with wave heights of 4-6 ft in a southwest swell.

For the forecast, high pressure that is presently building over 
the area will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California during the next several days producing mainly gentle 
to moderate northwest to north winds. Wave heights of 6-9 ft in 
northwest swell across the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside
to below 8 ft late tonight. The fresh to strong north winds in 
the northern Gulf of California will shift to the central part of
the Gulf tonight, diminish to mainly fresh speeds early on Tue 
and become light and variable early on Wed. The 5-6 ft wave 
heights in the northern part of the Gulf will subside to 3-4 ft 
by late tonight. By early Tue, wave heights will be 3-4 ft in the
Gulf, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft at the 
entrance to the Gulf due to a southeast swell.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle
to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Wave heights 
are 5-7 ft due a southwest swell. 

For the forecast, moderate east winds over the offshore waters 
of southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region will
become light southeast to south to variable at night during the 
rest of the week. Light to gentle winds will remain north of the
monsoon trough, while moderate to occasionally fresh south to 
southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through
Wed night. Wave heights of 4-6 ft in a southwest swell will 
continue over most of the offshore forecast waters through at 
least Wed night. Additional pulses of long-period southwest swell
will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
by Thu increasing the wave heights slightly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient related to high pressure building over the
area in the wake of a recently dissipated frontal boundary is 
producing mainly fresh northeast to east winds over the western 
and central sections of the area from 22N to 27N west of about 
122W. Long-period north swell is creating wave heights of 8-10 ft 
from 24N to 27N between 122W-140W as noted in recent altimeter 
data passes. Similar wave heights due to a northwest swell are 
present between 116W-122W as noted by a recent ship observation 
that suggested wave heights reaching to 10 ft near 28N120W. 

For the forecast, the long-period northwest and north swell will
gradually decay through Tue evening allowing for the wave 
heights of 8-11 ft to lower to less than 8 ft. High pressure will
be the main feature controlling the wind regime over the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and west of about 110W through at 
least Wed night. A new set of long-period northwest swell will 
bring wave heights of 8-9 ft to the northeast part of the 
remainder of the area waters beginning Wed afternoon.

$$
Aguirre