000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 03N to 17N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave along and near the monsoon trough from 08N to 09N and between 104W-106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low near the coast of northwest Colombia at 10N77W, westward to 10N85W to 08N97W to 09N105W to 13N110W to 12N122W to 13N130W and to 11N136W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 11N136W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 93W-95W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 126W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 117W-120W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 98W-101W, and between 123W-126W and also within 30 nm south of the trough between 114W-116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient related to high pressure building over the area and the western part of a cold front that is over the northern Gulf of California is resulting in gentle to moderate northwest winds west of northern Baja California along with wave heights of 7-9 ft due to a long-period swell. In the Gulf of California, overnight ASCAT data indicated fresh to strong north winds from 28N to 31N. Wave heights with these winds are 5-6 ft. Elsewhere along the coast of Mexico light to gentle westerly winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure that is presently building over the area will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds. Wave heights of 7-9 ft in northwest swell across the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside to below 8 ft late tonight into Tue. The fresh to strong north winds in the northern Gulf of California will shift to the central part of the Gulf by early this evening, diminish to mainly fresh speeds early on Tue and become light and variable early on Wed. The 5-6 ft wave heights in the northern part of the Gulf will subside to 3-4 ft by late tonight. By early Tue, wave heights will be 3-4 ft in the Gulf, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft due to a southeast swell at the entrance to the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Wave heights are 5-7 ft due a southwest swell. For the forecast, winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Light to gentle winds will remain north of the monsoon trough, while moderate to occasionally fresh south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through Wed night. Wave heights of 4-6 ft in a southwest will continue over most of the offshore forecast waters through at least Wed night. Additional pulses of long- period southwest swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient related to high pressure building over the area in the wake of a recently dissipated frontal boundary is producing mainly fresh northeast to east winds over the western and central sections of the area from 22N to 27N west of about 122W. Long-period north swell is creating wave heights of 8-11 ft from 24N to 27N between 122W-140W. Similar wave heights in northwest swell are present between 116W-122W. For the forecast, the long-period northwest and north swell will gradually decay through Tue evening allowing for the wave heights of 8-11 ft to lower to less than 8 ft. High pressure will be the main feature controlling the wind regime over the waters north of the monsoon trough and west of about 110W through at least Wed night. A new set of long-period northwest swell will bring wave heights of 8-9 ft to the northeast part of the remainder of the area waters beginning Wed afternoon. $$ Aguirre