000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240339
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Remnants Of Roslyn are moving over NE Mexico. At 24/0300 UTC, 
Roslyn is centered near 26.0N 101.0W moving NE at 19 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The remnants are moving 
toward the northeast and this general motion is expected to 
continue tonight. Further weakening is likely overnight while the
remnants lose their identity. Roslyn's remnants are expected to 
produce up to an additional inch of rain across northeastern 
Mexico and an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of
coastal and west-central Mexico. This rainfall could lead to 
flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. The 
National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on this 
system.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W/102W north of 03N, moving
west at around 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N102W to 13N115W to a
1009 mb low pres near 13N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 13N to 16N between 125W and 
130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on the remnants of Roslyn.

A weakening cold front extends from a 1004 mb low pressure located
over western Arizona across the northern Gulf of California, then
continues SW over Baja California Norte and the offshore waters
of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds follow the front with seas of 8-11 in NW swell. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 5-7 ft. In the 
Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong westerly winds are 
noted S of the front to about 27N, while moderate to fresh northerly
winds are seen behind the front. 

For the forecast, the weakening cold front will dissipate in about
24 hours. Then, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California during the next several days producing mainly
gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue
to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Mon and will
subside below 8 ft Mon night into Tue. In the Gulf of California,
the northerly winds in the wake of the front will increase to 
20-25 kt tonight and Mon, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle
to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
4-6 ft in S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate
in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Tue. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south
of the monsoon trough through midweek. Seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell
will dominate most of the offshore forecast waters. Additional
pulses of long period SW swell will reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front stretches from 29N115W to 25N125W to 
25N140W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the front and W
of 130W with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere N of the front fresh
northerly winds are observed with seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell, 
highest N of 28N between 118W and 125W. High pressure follows the
front and dominates the remainder of the northern forecast waters.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate in about 24 hours
while moving farther S. Seas of 8-11 ft in northerly swell in the
wake of the front will gradually subside through Tue. High 
pressure will dominate the waters N of the monsoon trough over 
the next several days. 

$$
GR