000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Roslyn is centered inland near 24.6N 103.5W 1002 mb at 2 PM PDT moving NE at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Roslyn will weaken to a remnant low near 26.8N 101.3W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Seas are peaking near 8 ft along the coast of Nayarit. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted over central Mexico from 20N-26N. On the forecast track, Roslyn or its remnants will continue to move inland over central Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 10N86W to 10N104W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N110W to 15N127W to 11N134W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 79W and 90W, and from 08N to 17N between 120W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and southern Mexico. Fresh winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft. An area of seas reaching 7 ft is noted across the southern tip of the Gulf mainly south of 25N. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf with seas 1-3 ft. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Convection associated with Roslyn continue moving across southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Roslyn will weaken to a remnant low near 26.8N 101.3W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. A set of NW swell will continue to propagate into the waters offshore Baja California through Mon, with building seas approaching 12 ft tonight. Seas will subside by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters, N of 07N and E of 91W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front stretches from 30N116W to 26N129W to 30N140W. Fresh N to NE winds follow the front with seas 8-9 ft in northerly swell. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 28N and west of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft seas east of 120W and N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W. For the forecast, the cold front will press southward through Mon, with fresh N-NE winds and NW swell across the NW and north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Mon night. The area of moderate seas south of the monsoon trough will subside through early week. $$ ERA