000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 22.8N 105.0W at 23/1500 UTC moving NNE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas are peaking near 26 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 19N to 25N between 100W and 108W. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west- central Mexico today. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther inland. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west- central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 10N86W to 10N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N109W to 09N139W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 12N between 81W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 120W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Moderate N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and southern Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas 8-9 ft. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf with seas 1-3 ft. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Convection associated with Roslyn continue moving across southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Roslyn will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.9N 103.5W this evening, weaken to a remnant low near 27.6N 101.2W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish today with along with subsiding seas. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California today, with building seas approaching 12 ft tonight. Seas will subside by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters, N of 08N between 78W and 93W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the discussion waters, stretching from 30N119W to 28N129W to 30N138W. Fresh N to NE winds follow the front with seas 8-10 ft in NW swell. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 28N and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft seas east of 120W N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W. For the forecast, the cold front will press southward into Sun, with fresh N-NE winds and NW swell across the NW and north- central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun night. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will subside through early this morning. $$ ERA