000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 21.1N 106.1W at 23/0900 UTC moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Seas are peaking near 27 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 105W and 108W. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit this morning. Although some weakening is possible early today, Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall. Seas will quickly drop below 12 ft this afternoon as Roslyn makes landfall, with conditions improving by tonight. Heavy rainfall is expected across the coastal areas of southwestern and west- central Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 989 north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 10N95W to 12N104W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N112W to 13N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 121W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 84W and 100W and from 11N to 16N between 110W and 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Moderate N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and southern Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas 8-9 ft. Light winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf with seas 1-34 ft. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Rainbands associated with Roslyn continue moving across southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Roslyn near 21.1N 106.1W 958 mb at 2 AM PDT moving NNE at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Roslyn will move to 23.2N 104.9W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 26.0N 102.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish later this morning with along with subsiding seas. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California today, with building seas approaching 12 ft tonight. Seas will subside by Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters, N of 08N between 78W and 93W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is entering the discussion waters, stretching from 30N123W to 30N135W. Fresh N to NE winds follow the front with seas 8-9 ft in NW swell. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 25N and west of 124W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft seas east of 120W N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 120W. For the forecast, the cold front will press southward into Sun, with fresh N-NE winds and NW swell across the NW and north- central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun night. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will subside through early this morning. $$ AReinhart