000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230412 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 20.0N 106.6W at 23/0300 UTC moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas are currently peaking at 31 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 105W and 108W. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Although some weakening is possible tonight and early Sunday, Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall on Sunday. Seas will fall below 20 ft by early Sun morning as Roslyn makes landfall, and fall below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. Heavy rainfall is expected across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 10N85W to 11N105W. The monsoon trough resumes near 15N112W to 13N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 122W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 86W and 93W and from 11N to 18N between 108W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Moderate N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and off the SW Mexico coast. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with light winds prevailing elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas are reaching 8 ft in the northern Gulf of California with the strong winds and 1-3 ft elsewhere in the Gulf. Rainbands associated with Roslyn continue moving across southwestern Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Roslyn near 20.0N 106.6W 954 mb at 8 PM PDT moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Roslyn will move to 21.9N 105.7W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.9N 103.5W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 27.5N 101.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will prevail tonight with seas building to 8-9 ft. Conditions are expected to improve by Sun morning. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California on Sun, with building seas approaching 12 ft on Sun night. Seas will subside by Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters, N of 08N between 82W and 92W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the western discussion waters, N of 18N and W of 125W. Seas are 8-9 ft within NW swell. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 18N and west of 124W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft seas east of 120W N of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 120W. For the forecast, a weak cold front will press southward tonight into Sun, bringing a fresh N-NE winds and a fresh set of NW swell across the NW and north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun night. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will subside through tonight. $$ AReinhart