761 AXPZ20 KNHC 222126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 19.0N 106.6W at 22/2100 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas are peaking near 26 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 23N between 103W and 109W. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Roslyn continues to be a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening could occur tonight, Roslyn is expected to at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 10N85W to 10N101W. The monsoon trough resumes near 14N112W to 09N138W. The ITCZ is analyzed from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 12N between 85W and 95W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 07N to 18N between 108W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and off the SW Mexico coast. Fresh winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with light winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Outer rainbands associated with Roslyn continue moving across the western coastline of Mexico from Colima to Mazatlan. For the forecast, Hurricane Roslyn will move to 20.4N 106.2W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.2N 104.7W Sun afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 26.0N 102.8W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight with seas building to 8-9 ft. Conditions are expected to improve by Sun morning. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California on Sun, with building seas approaching 12 ft on Sun night. Seas will subside by Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters and off the coast of Colombia, N of 05N between 77W and 92W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate winds are noted across the NW discussion waters, N of 17N and W of 128W. Seas are 8-9 ft in this area within NW swell. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 18N and west of 122W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft in mainly NW swell north of the monsoon trough with 4-6 ft seas east of 120W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 120W. For the forecast, a weak cold front will press southward tonight into Sun, bringing a fresh N-NE winds and a fresh set of NW swell across the NW and north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun night. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will dissipate through tonight. $$ ERA