000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221529 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 18.0N 106.3W at 22/1500 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Seas are peaking near 24 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 21N between 103W and 110W. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today. Although some weakening is possible beginning tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W north of 03N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 09N85W to 10N100W. The monsoon trough resumes near 13N112W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 13N between 83W and 92W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 08N to 17N between 111W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Fresh to strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters and off the SW Mexico coast. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with light winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Outer rainbands associated with Roslyn are moving across Colima to Nayarit. For the forecast, Hurricane Roslyn will move to 19.2N 106.4W this evening, 21.4N 105.7W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.1N 104.2W Sun evening, weaken to a remnant low near 27.1N 101.8W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish today. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California later today with seas potentially building to 8-9 ft. Conditions are expected to improve by Sun morning. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California on Sun, with building seas approaching 12 ft on Sun night. Seas will subside by Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Central American offshore waters and off the coast of Colombia, N of 05N between 77W and 92W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the NW discussion waters, N of 19N and W of 128W. Seas are 8-9 ft in this area within NW swell. Meanwhile, moderate NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 17N and west of 122W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-8 ft in mainly NW swell north of the monsoon trough with 4-6 ft seas east of 120W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. For the forecast, a weak cold front will press southward tonight into Sun, bringing a fresh N-NE winds and a fresh set of NW swell across the NW and north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun night. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will dissipate through tonight. $$ ERA