000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Roslyn is centered near 16.7N 105.6W at 22/0300 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Seas are currently peaking near 17 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 102W and 108W. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and early Saturday, then approach the coast of west- central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday morning. Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn could be near major hurricane intensity when it nears the coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall is expected across southwestern and south-central Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 09N84W to 09N93W. The monsoon trough resumes near 11N111W to 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 81W and 93W, and from 06N to 17N between 108W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Roslyn. Strong N winds continue to prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle N-NW winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters, Gulf of California and off the SW Mexico coast. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, newly upgraded Hurricane Roslyn near 16.7N 105.6W 982 mb at 8 PM PDT moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Roslyn will move to 17.6N 106.0W Sat morning, 19.3N 106.2W Sat evening, 21.4N 105.6W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 24.4N 104.0W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 27.5N 101.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through tonight and diminish by early Sat. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun morning. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California Sun into early next week, with building seas approaching 12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 7 ft in N to NW swell across the Guatemala offshore waters due to the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, seas are 4-6 ft in S to SW swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador, N of 07N between 82W and 89W. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will pulse to moderate in offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo this weekend. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh winds are noted across the NW discussion waters. Meanwhile, moderate NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 19N and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-8 ft in mainly NW swell north of the monsoon trough in association with the fresh winds and west of 125W with 4-6 ft seas east of 120W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 130W. For the forecast, a weak cold front will press southward this weekend, bringing a fresh set of NW swell across the NW and north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-10 ft. The front is expected to dissipate by Sun. Another set of swell will arrive late in the weekend into early next week, with seas to around 12 ft near 30N on Mon. The area of moderate to rough seas south of the monsoon trough will dissipate through Sat. $$ AReinhart