000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212146
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Roslyn is centered near 16.4N 105.0W at 21/2100
UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75
kt. Seas are peaking around 17 ft near the center. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 19N 
between 99W and 116W. On the forecast track, the center of 
Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico 
today and tonight, then approach the coast of west-central 
Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or 
Sunday. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later 
tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane 
when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. 
Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of 
west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja 
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office for 
details.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 04N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Convection is discussed below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the Costa Rica coast near 09N84W 
to 09N99W. The monsoon trough resumes near 11N111W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N 
between 80W and 96W, and from 07N to 18N between 119W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on Tropical Storm Roslyn.

Strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle N-NW winds prevail 
across the Baja California offshore waters, Gulf of California 
and off the SW Mexico coast. Seas are 4-6 ft in NW swell west of 
Baja California and SW Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Roslyn will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 17.0N 105.8W Sat morning, move to 18.3N 106.3W Sat
afternoon, 20.2N 106.1W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 22.6N 105.0W Sun afternoon, weaken to a 
remnant low near 25.7N 102.9W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon 
afternoon. Strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue
through tonight and diminish by early Sat. Fresh to strong winds
will develop in the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun 
morning. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore
Baja California Sun into early next week, with building seas 
approaching 12 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with
moderate southerly winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 7 ft
in N to NW swell across the Guatemala offshore waters due to the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, seas are 4-6 ft in
S to SW swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted across the Guatemala coast N of 11N between 89W and 
92W.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Winds will pulse to moderate in 
offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo this 
weekend. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak pressure gradient prevails over much of the discussion 
waters, with moderate NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough to 
19N and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-8 ft in mainly NW swell north 
of the monsoon trough and west of 125W with 4-6 ft seas east of 
120W. Moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
7-9 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough
between 105W and 130W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will press southward this 
weekend, bringing a fresh set of NW swell across the NW and 
north-central waters. Seas will build to 8-10 ft. The front is 
expected to dissipate by Sun. Another set of swell will arrive 
late in the weekend into early next week, with seas to around 12 
ft near 30N on Mon. The area of moderate to rough seas south of 
the monsoon trough will dissipate through Sat.

$$
ERA