000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 15.1N 101.5W at 20/0900 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 18N102W to 15N96W to 10N104W to 10N115W to 18N102W. The depression is moving toward the west and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected Fri and Fri night, followed by a northward motion by Sat night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Sat and then pass near or over the west-central coast of Mexico Sat night. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and then become a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night. Heavy rainfall in outer bands could lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacan. The system is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico by Fri. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure across the slopes of eastern Mexico in the wake of a seasonably strong cold front that has cleared the Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to support gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will shift eastward and weaken Thu night into Fri, loosening the pressure gradient. Winds will diminish below gale force late Thu night, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat evening. Seas will peak near 14 ft during period of gale force winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W/87W north of 05N to near the Gulf of Papagayo and western Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 12N86W to 15N97W, then resumes southwest of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E near 13N106W to 09N130W to 12N140W. Other than the convection described and associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 88W and 91W, from 10N to 12N between 120W and 123W, and from 07N to 10N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, and on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle N-NW winds are west of 110W as well as in the Gulf of California, except locally moderate near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are from west of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E to 110W. Seas are 4-6 ft in NW swell west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with 4-5 ft seas in mainly S-SW swell elsewhere west of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.3N 102.3W this afternoon, move to 15.6N 103.3W Fri morning, 16.1N 104.2W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 105.2W Sat morning, 17.9N 106.0W Sat afternoon, and 19.4N 106.2W Sun morning. Nineteen-E will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 23.4N 104.3W early Mon, dissipating early Tue. Other than Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning, moderate to fresh S-SW winds will develop in the Gulf of California north 30N Sat night, and increase to fresh to strong Sat night through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon morning, shifting southward through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the weekend into next week. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California late Sun into early next week with building seas to around 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are beyond 60 nm offshore western Guatemala due to a gap wind event west of the area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 7-10 ft are also filtering across the same area. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are elsewhere north 08N, with moderate S-SW winds south of 08N. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds well offshore Guatemala and associated 7-10 ft seas will diminish and subside through the day, while moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh offshore southern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27.5N132W. A surface trough extends from the low to north of 30N then back through 30N129W to 25N130W to 23N140W. Scattered showers are possible within 60-75 nm or so of the trough. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are on the west side of the low. This low and trough has disrupted the high pressure that has prevailed over the northern waters earlier in the week, weakening the pressure gradient across the area. Moderate NE-E winds are north of the monsoon trough 20N west of 120W with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft in mainly NW swell north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W with 4-6 ft seas east of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon tough between 100W and 115W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W, locally 9 ft near 03.4S, and 4-6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, the low/trough will drift east across the north-central waters, eventually dissipating over the next day or so. Fresh sets of NW swell will propagate across the NW and north-central waters over the next several days, occasionally building seas to around 8-9 ft with each passing set. The largest set may arrive late in the weekend into early next week, with seas to around 11 ft near 30N Mon. Meanwhile, a set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft will breach 03.4S and the Equator tonight, reaching to 10N by the end of this week. $$ Lewitsky