000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 15.2N 101.3W at 20/0300 UTC moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 100W and 110W. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A gradual turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast on Sat. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico through Fri night, then pass near the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Sat and Sat night. Strengthening is expected during the next few ays, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and a hurricane by late Fri or Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure across the slopes of eastern Mexico in the wake of a seasonably strong cold front that has cleared the Gulf of Mexico. A tight pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region continues to support gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will shift eastward and weaken Thu night into Fri, loosening the pressure gradient. Winds will diminish below gale force late Thu night, then further diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat evening. Seas will peak near 14 ft during period of gale force winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W/86W north of 03N, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 15N97W to near Tropical Depression Nineteen-E to 11N120W to 10N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 79W and 90W, and from 06N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, and on a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning, light to gentle winds prevail over the discussion waters, except locally moderate near Punta Eugenia, from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, and in the near shore waters from north of Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell are west of Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward, with 4-5 ft seas in S-SW swell elsewhere west of 102W. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.3N 102.2W Thu morning, move to 15.6N 103.2W Thu evening, 16.0N 104.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 105.1W Fri evening, 17.6N 105.9W Sat morning, and 18.9N 106.3W Sat evening. Nineteen-E will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 22.5N 105.2W late Sun, dissipating late Mon. Other than Tropical Depression Nineteen-E and the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sat night, with moderate to fresh winds north of 27.5N Sun afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong NW-N winds will then occur in the northern Gulf Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through the weekend into next week. A set of NW swell may propagate into the waters offshore Baja California late Sun into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are spreading offshore Guatemala due to a gap wind event west of the area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of around 8 ft are also filtering across the same area. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore El Salvador along with 4-7 ft seas, with gentle to moderate NW winds and 4-5 ft seas offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate offshore southern Nicaragua and in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by early Thu due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1016 mb low pressure is centered near 28N132W. A surface trough extends from 30N129W to 27N128W to 23N135W to 25N140W. Scattered showers are possible within 60 nm or so of the trough. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are on the west side of the low. This low and trough has disrupted the high pressure that has prevailed over the northern waters earlier in the week, weakening the pressure gradient across the area. Gentle to moderate winds are found north of the monsoon trough, with 6-8 ft seas from 10N to 20N west of 130W, 4-6 ft from 10N to 20N east of 130W, and 6-7 ft elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the monsoon tough between 100W and 115W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 6-7 ft prevail across the waters south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W, locally 8 ft near 03.4S, and 4-6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, the low/trough will drift east across the north-central waters, eventually dissipating over the next day or so. Fresh sets of NW swell will propagate across the NW and north-central waters over the next several days, occasionally building seas to around 8-9 ft with each passing set. The largest set may arrive late in the weekend into early next week, with seas to around 11 ft near 30N Mon. Meanwhile, a set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft will breach 03.4S and the Equator tonight, reaching to 10N by the end of this week. $$ Lewitsky