000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181443 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce a broad and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance through 5 days. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will be possible offshore southwestern Mexico by the end of the week into the weekend. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W north of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of 08N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 13N98W to 09N120W to 11N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 03N east of 80W, from 10N to 16N between 90W and 110W, from 07N to 10N between 110W and 130W, and from 08N to 13N west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on possible tropical cyclone development offshore southwestern Mexico later this week. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are noted offshore Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro as well as in the Gulf of California north of 27N. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere offshore Mexico, except moderate to fresh well south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are mainly 4-5 ft across the open waters, except 5-7 ft offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, other than the possibly developing trough of low pressure, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to at least near gale-force Wed night through Thu night with building seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds prevail across the offshore waters, locally fresh beyond 200 nm offshore Guatemala. Seas are mainly in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough will diminish to light to gentle Wed night, pulsing to moderate offshore southern Nicaragua and in the Gulf of Papagayo into the upcoming weekend. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N127W to 24N140W. A 1016 mb high is centered to the east near 30N123W. A set of NW swell with 7-8 ft seas is over the far NW waters. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 125W along with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator and east of 110W, with gentle to moderate southerly winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. The moderate to fresh winds south of the monsoon trough are supporting seas in the 7-8 ft range east of 110W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the cold front will drift east across the north-central waters, eventually dissipating over the next day or so. The set of long period NW swell will propagate across the NW waters, with another set of NW swell by the end of the week. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft will breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ AL