000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180134 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0120 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W/95W north of 07N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 09N120W to 12N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm of the coast between 77W and 97W, and from 08N to 18N between 97W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 114W and 132W, and from 08N to 15N between 133W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, locally fresh in Sebastian Vizcaino Bay and northward. Moderate NW-N winds are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, locally 6 ft well south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. A broad trough of low pressure has formed a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force Wed night through Thu night with building seas. Meanwhile, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of the broad trough of low pressure, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S-SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate SE winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range from Costa Rica southward, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough will diminish to light to gentle Wed night, except pulsing to moderate offshore southern Nicaragua and in the Gulf of Papagayo into the upcoming weekend. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N130W to 24N140W. A 1018 mb high is centered to the southeast near 25N130W. A set of NW swell with 6-8 ft seas is lagging behind the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W along with 6-7 ft seas. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough along with seas of 4-6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 115W, with gentle winds west of 120W. The moderate to fresh winds south of the monsoon trough are supporting seas in the 7-8 ft range east of 110W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the cold front will drift east across the north-central waters, eventually dissipating over the next day or so. The set of long period NW swell will propagate across the NW waters, with another set of NW swell by the end of the week. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky