000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172042
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N102W to 09N117W to 
12N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted north of 03N east of 80W, from 07N to 15N between 80W 
and 112W, and from 07N to 10N between 115W and 125W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 125W and 
140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California
peninsula. Gentle winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range 
over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force 
on Wed night with building seas. An area of low pressure is 
expected to form in a day or two a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast 
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late in the week while the system 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through 
next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough
with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in 
S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala 
by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N132W to 24N140W. A 1019 mb high is 
centered to the southeast near 26N128W. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the monsoon 
trough to near 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 120W, with 
gentle winds west of 120W. The moderate to fresh winds south of 
the monsoon trough are supporting seas in the 7-8 ft range east 
of 110W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, the cold front will drift east across the NW
waters, eventually dissipating over the next day or so. A set of
long period NW swell will reach the NW corner of the area by 
this evening, with another set of NW swell by the end of the 
week. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 
03.4S and the Equator by mid-week.

$$
AL