087 AXPZ20 KNHC 171445 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 05N, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N101W to 09N116W to 12N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 02N east of 80W, from 07N to 13N between 80W and 111W, and from 07N to 10N between 115W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 125W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force on Wed night with building seas. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late in the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N133W to 24N140W. A 1020 mb high is centered to the southeast near 26N128W. This high dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough east of 120W, with gentle winds west of 120W. The moderate to fresh winds south of the monsoon trough is supporting seas in the 7-8 ft range east of 110W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the cold front will drift east across the NW waters, eventually dissipating through the early part of the week. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by this evening, with yet another set of NW swell by the end of the week. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ AL