000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170728 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 91W, north of 05N to across Guatemala, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Nicaragua at 12N86W to 09N110W to 10N120W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the coast between 77W and 95W, from 07N to 12N between 88W and 112W, from 07N to 10N between 114W and 124W, and from 08N to 16N between 128W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes, and in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, including the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 4-5 ft in S-SW swell across the open waters, mixed with NW swell west of Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are along the coast and coastal waters of southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force beginning on Wed night with building seas. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late in the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S-SW winds are from offshore Costa Rica south and eastward per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas around 5 ft in S-SW swell are elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal northern Colombia northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 75 nm offshore due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N135W to 26N140W. A 1021 mb high is centered to the southeast near 26N127W. This high dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the front. Moderate NW-N winds are noted west of the front per recent ASCAT scatterometer data along with 5-6 ft seas, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and west of 122W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are north of the monsoon trough to 22N and west of 115W along with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator east of 110W along with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will drift east across the NW waters, eventually dissipating through the early part of the week. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by this evening, with yet another set of NW swell by the end of the week. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky