000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170106 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 90W, north of 05N to across Guatemala, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 09N110W to 10N120W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast between 77W and 93W, from 07N to 12N between 90W and 104W, and from 09N to 12N between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 125W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California. Mainly moderate winds are elsewhere west of 105W, including in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light and variable winds prevail across the waters east of 105W as well as in the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 4-5 ft in S-SW swell dominate the open waters, mixed with NW swell west of Baja California, and to 6 ft downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force beginning on Wed night with building seas. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days a few hundred nautical miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late in the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 kt, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are from offshore Costa Rica south and eastward along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas around 5 ft in S-SW swell are elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal northern Colombia northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N132W to 24N140W with moderate SW winds about 75 nm ahead of the front. Seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell are west of the front. A developing cold front is to the west from 30N136W to 27N140W. A 1018 mb high is centered to the southeast near 25N130W. This high dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the fronts with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas mainly in long period, decaying mixed SW and NW swell. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh east of 105W and to the Equator, with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell, locally to 8 ft NW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the frontal boundaries will continue drifting east across the area, eventually dissipating through the early part of the week. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky