000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162105
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W, north of 05N to 
across Central America, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered showers are noted from 08N-11N between 86W-90W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at
10N86W to 09N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 100 nm on either side of the boundary and E of
110W, and from 09N to 15N and W of 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across the waters W of
Baja California with seas peaking to 5 ft. Moderate variable 
winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas up to 4 ft. 
Moderate N winds and 4-6 ft seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S-SW swell are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
develop by mid-week, peaking to near gale-force beginning on Wed
night with building seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere through next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are from offshore Costa Rica south 
and eastward along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell. Light to 
gentle variable winds and seas around 5 ft in S-SW swell are 
elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on 
satellite imagery from coastal western Panama northward to 
Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore due to the
proximity of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in 
S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala 
by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N132W to 24N140W with moderate 
SW winds about 75 nm ahead of the front. Seas of 5-6 ft in NW 
swell are west of the front. A 1020 mb high is centered 
southeast of the front near 25N127W. This high dominates the 
waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the front with 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas mainly in 
long period, decaying mixed SW and NW swell. Mainly moderate 
southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh east
of 110W and to the Equator, with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell, 
locally to 8 ft NW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary will continue drifting
east across the area while weakening, and eventually dissipating
by early Mon. Another set of long period NW swell should reach 
the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with 
seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid- 
week.

$$
ERA