000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161533
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 88W, north of 05N to 
across Central America and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west
at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis mainly S of 12N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at
10N86W to 09N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 100 nm on either side of the boundary.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are noted in the northern Gulf of 
California with seas to around 5 ft. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds
and 3-4 ft seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of California north of
27N, with gentle to moderate mainly NW-N winds and 1-3 ft seas 
are in the remainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh N winds 
and 4-6 ft seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to 
gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S-SW swell are elsewhere east of 
105W.

For the forecast, fresh S-SW winds in the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish later this morning. Fresh N winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish by late this morning, then 
will return mid-week, peaking at at least near gale-force at 
night with building seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are from offshore Costa 
Rica south and eastward along with 5-6 ft seas in S-SW swell. 
Light to gentle variable winds and seas around 5 ft in S-SW swell
are elsewhere, except a surge of moderate winds offshore 
Nicaragua. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on 
satellite imagery from coastal western Panama northward to 
Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore.

For the forecast, moderate winds over the waters offshore 
Nicaragua will diminish by tonight. Moderate to occasionally 
fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with 
gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the 
week. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, 
building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N133W to 23N140W with fresh SW winds
about 75 nm ahead of the front. Seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell are 
west of the front. A 1019 mb high is centered southeast of the 
front near 26N128W. This high dominates the waters north of the 
monsoon trough and east of the front with gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas mainly in long period, 
decaying mixed SW and NW swell. Mainly moderate southerly flow is
south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh east of 110W and to 
the Equator, with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell, locally to 8 ft 
NW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the high will weaken as the cold front 
continues to move across the area while also weakening,
eventually dissipating by early Mon. Another set of long period 
NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A
set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and 
the Equator by mid-week.

$$
ERA