000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160746 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0720 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 86W/87W, north of 05N to across Central America and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 11N110W to 12N127W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 80W and 100W, from 11N to 14N between 87W and 92W, and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 113W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong S-SW winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with seas to around 5 ft. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds and 3-4 ft seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of California north of 27.5N, with gentle to moderate mainly NW-N winds and 1-3 ft seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of California. A weak surface trough is along 105W with moderate NW-N winds and 4-5 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell west of 105W. Fresh to strong N winds and 5-7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S-SW swell are elsewhere east of 105W. For the forecast, fresh to strong S-SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish later this morning. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish by late this morning, then will return mid-week, peaking at at least near gale-force at night with building seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are from offshore Costa Rica south and eastward along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft offshore Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas around 5 ft in S-SW swell are elsewhere, except a surge of moderate to fresh winds offshore Nicaragua. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal western Panama northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore. For the forecast, winds of moderate to fresh offshore Nicaragua will diminish by tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through the week. Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N134.5W to 24N140W with fresh SW winds about 75 nm ahead of the front. Seas of 6-7 ft in NW swell are west of the front. Scattered showers are possible within about 150 nm ahead of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered southeast of the front near 25N130W. This high dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the front with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas mainly in long period, decaying mixed SW and NW swell. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough, locally fresh east of 110W and to the Equator, with seas of 5-7 ft in S-SW swell, locally to 8 ft NW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the high will weaken as the cold front continues to move across the area while also weakening, eventually dissipating by early Mon. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by mid-week. $$ Lewitsky