243 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160118
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 85W/86W, north of 05N to
across Central America and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving 
west at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 08N78W to
11N95W to 10N108W to 12N124W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 80W
and 89W, from 06N to 10N between 90W and 100W, from 08N to 14N
between 113W and 123W, and from 07N to 14N between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong S-SW winds are noted in the northern Gulf of
California with seas to around 5 ft. Gentle to moderate S-SW
winds and 1-3 ft seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of
California. A weak surface trough is along 105W with moderate
NW-N winds and 4-5 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell west of 105W.
Fresh to strong N winds and 5-6 ft seas are in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle winds and 4-5 ft seas in S-SW
swell are elsewhere east of 105W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S-SW winds in the northern Gulf
of California will diminish Sun. Fresh to strong N winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish by late Sun morning, then will
return mid-week, peaking near gale-force at night with building
seas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere through next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S-SW winds are from offshore Costa Rica south and
eastward along with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell, except 4-6 ft
offshore Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds and seas around
5 ft in S-SW swell are elsewhere. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal 
western Panama northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60
nm offshore.

For the forecast, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh offshore 
Nicaragua tonight into early Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh
S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle
winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through next week.
Moderate seas in S-SW swell will dominate the waters, building
offshore Guatemala by mid-week due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N135.5W to 25N140W with fresh to
strong SW winds about 60 nm ahead of the front. Seas to 8 ft in
NW swell are west of the front. Scattered showers are possible
within about 100 nm ahead of the front. A 1017 mb high is
centered east of the front near 24.5N131W. This high dominates
the waters north of the monsoon trough and east of the front with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft seas mainly in
long period, decaying NW-N swell. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough with seas of 
5-7 ft in S-SW swell, locally to 8 ft NW of the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, the high will weaken as the cold front 
continues to move across the area while also weakening,
eventually dissipating by early Mon. Fresh to strong winds ahead
of the front will diminish later tonight while seas west of the
front subside to less than 8 ft. Another set of long period NW 
swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A 
set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and 
the Equator by mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky