000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 83W and north of 05N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis mainly north of 04N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 81W-106W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-14N between 115W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is along 106W with scattered showers noted along it. Light to gentle NW-N winds are west of 105W, locally moderate near Cabo San Lucas as well as just south of Punta Eugenia. Moderate NW-N winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle SW-W winds are elsewhere east of 105W. Seas are 4-5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere in the open waters, except with mixed NW swell offshore Baja California. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail along with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected over the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Scattered moderate convection associated to the now Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl north of the basin in the SW Gulf of Mexico could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Moderate northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun, with fresh to near gale-force winds possible by mid-week. Tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S-SW winds are south of 08N as well as in the Gulf of Panama, and light to gentle W-NW winds prevail north of 08N. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail north of 08N and offshore Colombia, with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal western Panama northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to moderate offshore Nicaragua through the weekend. Slight to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through early next week also. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front has entered the area extending from 30N138W to 27N140W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are noted N of 27N and W of 136W with seas to around 8 ft. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters north of the monsoon trough with a ridge axis extending from the high southeastward to near 16N110W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under the influence of the high, except light to gentle near and under the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft across the open waters, except 4-6 ft near the lighter winds and ridge axis. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken as the cold front continues to move across the area. The front will move east through Sun and dissipate by early Mon. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will prevail ahead of the front today north of 27N and west of 136W. A set of NW swell behind the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the northwest corner of the forecast area, subsiding by early Sun. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by the middle of next week. $$ ERA