000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151524
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 82W and north of 05N, 
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N95W
to 10N108W to 11N117W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N-13N between 85W-122W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N-14N between
128W-136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along 104W/105W. Scattered showers prevail
along the trough axis. Light to gentle NW-N winds are west of 
105W, locally moderate near Cabo San Lucas as well as just south 
of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are developing in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle 
SW-W winds are elsewhere east of 105W. Seas are 4-5 ft in S-SW 
swell elsewhere in the open waters, except with mixed NW swell 
offshore Baja California. In the Gulf of California, moderate to 
locally fresh S-SW winds prevail along with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore
Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected
over the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Heavy 
rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Karl north of the basin
in the SW Gulf of Mexico could produce instances of flash 
flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across 
portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun, with 
fresh to near gale-force winds possible there by mid-week. 
Tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere across the 
offshore waters early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S-SW winds are south of 08N as well as in the Gulf of 
Panama, and light to gentle W-NW winds prevail north of 08N. 
Seas of 4-5 ft prevail north of 08N and offshore Colombia, with 
5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell elsewhere. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal western
Panama northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm 
offshore.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of 
the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds may
pulse to moderate offshore Nicaragua through the weekend. Slight
to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through early next 
week also.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is west of 30N139W enhancing winds/seas. Fresh to 
strong S-SW winds are noted N of 27N and W of 137W with seas to 
around 8 ft. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters 
north of the monsoon trough with a ridge axis extending from the 
high southeastward to near 16N110W. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds prevail under the influence of the high, 
except light to gentle near and under the ridge axis. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas 
are mainly 5-7 ft across the open waters, except 4-6 ft near the 
lighter winds and ridge axis.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken as the cold front
continues to move across the area. The front will move east 
through the weekend and dissipate by early Mon. In advance of the
front, fresh to strong S-SW winds will prevail today north of 
27N and west of 135W. A set of NW swell behind the front will 
build seas to around 8 ft in the northwest corner of the forecast
area, subsiding by early Sun. Another set of long period NW 
swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A 
set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and 
the Equator by the middle of next week.

$$
ERA