000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150825 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 80W, north of 06N to across eastern Panama and continuing in the Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in the Pacific Ocean with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 12N95W to 10N108W to 11N117W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast between 80W and 94W, and from 07N to 13N between 123W and 134W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 88W and 104W, and from 09N to 12N between 104W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is along 104W/105W. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible west of the trough. Mainly light to gentle NW-N winds are west of 105W, locally moderate near Cabo San Lucas as well as just south of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle SW-W winds are elsewhere east of 105W. Seas are 4-5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere in the open waters, except with mixed NW swell offshore Baja California. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds prevail along with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected over the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Karl north of the basin in the SW Gulf of Mexico could produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun, with fresh to near gale-force winds possible there by mid-week. Tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate S-SW winds are south of 08N as well as in the Gulf of Panama, and light to gentle W-NW winds prevail north of 08N. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail north of 08N and offshore Colombia, with 5-7 ft seas in S-SW swell elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on satellite imagery from coastal western Panama northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds may pulse to moderate offshore Nicaragua through the weekend. Slight to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through early next week also. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is west of 30N140W with scattered moderate convection noted north of 27N and west of 138W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are noted in the same area of convection with building seas to around 8 ft. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters north of the monsoon trough with a ridge axis extending from the high southeastward to near 14N110W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under the influence of the high, except light to gentle near and under the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft across the open waters, except 4-6 ft near the lighter winds and ridge axis. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken as the cold front continues to move closer to 30N140W from the northwest. The front will move east through the weekend and dissipate by early Mon. In advance of the front, fresh to strong S-SW winds will occur today north of 25N and west of 135W. A set of NW swell behind the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the northwest corner of the forecast area, subsiding by early Sun. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with seas of at least 8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky