000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150110
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 78W/79W, north of 06N to across eastern
Panama and continuing in the Caribbean Sea, moving west at 5-10
kt. No significant convection is noted in the Pacific Ocean with
this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N100W
to 11N110W to 11N130W to 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 81W and 87W, and
from 07N to 13N between 115W and 133W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10.5N between 90W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Mainly gentle NW-N winds are west of 105W, including offshore
Baja California, except moderate between Cabo San Lazaro and
Punta Eugenia. Seas of 5-6 ft in mixed S and NW swell are
offshore Baja California, and 4-5 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere over
the open waters. Moderate to fresh NW-N wind are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle SW-W winds are elsewhere east of 
105W. In the Gulf of California, moderate SE-S winds prevail 
along with 1-3 ft seas north of the entrance. A weak surface
trough, the remnants of a low pressure area, extends from
17.5N105W to 12N104W. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible west of the trough.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore
Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected
over the northern Gulf of California through Sat night. Heavy 
rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Karl north of the basin 
in the SW Gulf of Mexico could produce instances of flash 
flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across 
portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun, with
fresh to near gale-force winds possible there by mid-week. Tranquil
marine conditions will prevail elsewhere across the offshore 
waters early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S-SW winds are south of 09N as well as in the Gulf of 
Panama, and light to gentle W-NW winds prevail north of 09N. Seas
of 4-6 ft prevail north of 09N and offshore Colombia, with 5-7 ft
seas in S-SW swell elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted on satellite imagery from coastal western Panama 
northward to Guatemala, extending approximately 60 nm offshore.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of 
the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. Winds may
pulse to moderate offshore Nicaragua through the weekend. Slight
to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through early next 
week also.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is west of 30N140W with scattered moderate
convection noted north of 28N and west of 138W. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are noted in the same area of convection with
building seas. High pressure of 1018 mb near 29N134W dominates 
the remainder of the waters north of the monsoon trough with a 
ridge axis extending from the high southeastward to near 14N110W.
Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under the
influence of the high, except light to gentle near and under the
ridge axis. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft across the open waters,
except 4-6 ft near the lighter winds and ridge axis.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken tonight as the cold 
front approaches 30N140W from the northwest. The front will move 
east through the weekend and dissipate by early Mon. In advance 
of the front, fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected tonight 
and Sat north of 25N and west of 135W. A set of NW swell behind 
the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the northwest corner 
of the forecast area early Sat before subsiding by early Sun. 
Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of
the area by Mon evening. A set of SW swell with seas of at least
8 ft may breach 03.4S and the Equator by the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky