000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142134
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N113W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N and E of 
97W, and from 06N to 14N between 114W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds are offshore Baja California per recent ASCAT 
scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail 
elsewhere west of 105W, while light to gentle SW-W winds are
noted east of 105W. Seas are 4-6 ft in mixed S and NW swell 
offshore Baja California, and 4-5 ft in S-SW swell east of 110W. 
Light and variable winds are in the Gulf of California along with
seas of 1-3 ft north of the entrance. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore
Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected
over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sat night. 
Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Karl in the SW Gulf
of Mexico could produce instances of flash flooding, with 
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Chiapas 
and Oaxaca. Tranquil marine conditions will prevail elsewhere 
across the offshore waters early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW winds are south of 08N as well as in the Gulf of 
Panama, and light to gentle W-NW winds prevail north of 08N. 
Seas are 5-6 ft in S-SW swell south of 09N, except 6-7 ft 
offshore Colombia, and 4-5 ft north of 09N. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted offshore western Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail south 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon 
trough through early next week. Slight to moderate seas in S-SW 
swell will prevail through early next week also.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridging prevails across the waters north of the 
monsoon trough from 30N135W to 20N110W. Moderate to fresh trades
are noted north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of 125W. 
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, 
except for gentle winds under the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft
in the moderate to fresh trade wind area, and 4-6 ft elsewhere 
north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft south of the monsoon
trough, locally to 7 ft south of the Equator.

For the forecast, the ridge will weaken tonight as a cold front 
approaches 30N140W from the northwest. The front will move east 
through the weekend and dissipate by early Mon. In advance of the
front, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected tonight and 
Sat north of 25N and west of 135W. A set of NW swell behind the 
front will build seas to around 8 ft in the northwest corner of 
the forecast area early Sat before subsiding by early Sun. 
Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of
the area by Mon evening.

$$
ERA