879 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140729
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across northern Costa Rica to the
Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to along and just offshore the
remainder of Central America and the Gulf of Tehuantepec to
southern Mexico near 16N96W to 11N107W to 12N125W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
08N to 10N between 101W and 103W, from 07N to 12N between 113W 
and 120W, and from 11N to 14N between 122W and 127W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 92W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW-N winds are offshore Baja California per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data, locally fresh nearshore from Cabo San Lazaro
northward. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail elsewhere west 
of 104W, with light to gentle SW-W winds east of 104W. Seas are
4-6 ft in mixed S and NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-5
ft in S-SW swell east of 110W. Light and variable winds are in 
the Gulf of California along with seas of 1-3 ft north of the 
entrance. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail offshore
Baja California. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW winds are expected
over the northern Gulf of California Fri night through Sat 
night. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Karl in the
SW Gulf of Mexico could produce instances of flash flooding, 
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of 
Chiapas and Oaxaca. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will 
prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S-SW winds are south of 08N as well as in the Gulf of
Panama, with light to gentle W-NW winds north of 08N. Seas are
5-7 ft in S-SW swell south of 09N, except 4-6 ft offshore
Colombia, and 4-5 ft north of 09N. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are noted offshore western Panama and
Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough through the weekend into early next week. 
Slight to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through the 
weekend into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridging extends across the waters north of the
monsoon trough from 30N135W to 15N110W. A belt of moderate to 
fresh trades is noted north of the monsoon trough to 19N and 
west of 130W. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 
the monsoon trough, except gentle right under the ridge axis. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 6-8 ft in the belt of moderate to fresh trades
per altimeter data, and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 5-6 ft south of the monsoon trough, locally to 7
ft south of the Equator.

For the forecast, little change is forecast through today. The 
High and ridge will weaken thereafter as a cold front approaches 
30N140W from the northwest. The front is forecast to reach from 
30N135W to 24.5N140W early Sun before dissipating by early Mon. 
In advance of the front, fresh to strong S to SW winds are 
expected Fri night and Sat north of 26N and west of 133W. A set 
of NW swell behind the front will build seas to around 8 ft in 
the northwest corner of the forecast area early Sat before 
subsiding by early Sun. Another set of long period NW swell 
should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon evening.

$$
Lewitsky