000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140110
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across northern Costa Rica to the
Gulf of Panama near 10N86W to along or just offshore the
remainder of Central America to southern Mexico near 16N97W to
11N110W to 12N130W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 85W, 
from 05N to 10N between 93W and 98W, and from 10N to 13N between 
105W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to
10N between 87W and 90W, from 14N to 16N between 104W and 106W, 
and from 11N to 14N between 121W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW-N winds are west of 104W to near Cabo Corrientes and
107.5W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted within 100 nm or so
offshore Baja California with moderate NW-N winds elsewhere 
offshore Baja California. Mainly Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, 
variable in the Gulf of California, and SW-W east of 104W. Seas 
are mainly 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except mixed NW swell offshore 
Baja California, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California north of 
the entrance.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue offshore
Baja California through early Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong S-SW
winds are expected over the northern Gulf of California Fri 
night through Sat night. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Karl, 
currently located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is forecast 
to make landfall and move southward near the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec Sat. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to 
dissipate without re- generating in the east Pacific, there is a 
possibility of increased showers and thunderstorms, and fresh winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. Fairly tranquil
marine conditions will prevail across the offshore waters early
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are offshore Panama and Colombia
west of 79W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are elsewhere
south of the monsoon trough. Gentle W-NW are north of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are 5-7 ft in S-SW swell south of 08N, and 
4-6 ft north of 08N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
noted offshore northern Colombia northward.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S-SW winds will
prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough through the weekend into early next week. 
Slight to moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail through the 
weekend into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridging extends across the waters north of the
monsoon trough from 30N135W to 15N108W. A belt of moderate to
fresh trades is noted north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west
of 129W. Mainly moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough, except gentle right under the ridge axis. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas
are 6-8 ft in the belt of moderate to fresh trades, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft south of
the monsoon trough, locally to 7 ft especially south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, little change is forecast through Fri. The High
and ridge will weaken thereafter as a cold front approaches
30N140W from the northwest. The front is forecast to reach from 
30N134W to 26N137W early Sun before dissipating by early Mon. In 
advance of the front, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected 
Fri night and Sat north of 26N and west of 133W. A set of NW 
swell behind the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the
northwest corner of the forecast area Sat before subsiding Sun. 
Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of
the area by Mon night.

$$
Lewitsky