000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 1009 mb low pressure near 16N99W to 10N118W to 11N136W. The ITCZ continues from 11N136W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N and E of 96W, from 09N to 18W between 102W and 109W, and from 09N to 18N between 120W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 16N99W, just off the coast of southern Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 18W between 102W and 109W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north and west of the low reaching the southern portion of Baja California. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted within 200 nm west of the Baja California, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range between 4-5 ft across the area, and between 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue offshore Baja California through Friday. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are expected over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Karl, currently located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to make landfall and move southward near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec Sat. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate without re-generating in the east Pacific, there is a possibility of increased showers and tstorms, and fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT satellite data depicts fresh SW winds offshore of southern Colombia. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere from the southern Costa Rica waters to the Ecuador waters. Gentle W winds are likely occurring over the offshore waters from Guatemala through northern Costa Rica. Altimeter data depicts seas of 6-7 ft in the fresh wind area. Seas are 5-6 ft elsewhere in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh southwesterly winds offshore Colombia and northern Ecuador, and to the south of Panama, are expected to persist through this evening before diminishing by early Fri. Looking ahead, winds could increase to 15-20 kt across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama late in the upcoming weekend due to a possible low pressure that could form along the monsoon trough. These winds could move into the waters between Nicaragua and Guatemala early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 12N138W to beyond 15N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough axis from 09N to 18N between 120W and 132W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data depicts moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 15N to 19N between 129W and 134W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 12N to 22N between 125W and 140W. Recent altimeter data shows seas of 6-7 ft in the area. A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters between this trough and the Baja California peninsula. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, where seas are 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for light to gentle and 4-5 ft in the ridge area over the northern waters. For the forecast, the surface trough will weaken as it moves west of 140W today. The area of fresh winds on the east side of the trough will persist from 15N to 22N between 130W and 140W through tonight. A ridge will remain in place north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W through Fri. A cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast area near 30N140W by Sat morning. The front is forecast to reach from 30N134W to 26N137W early Sun before dissipating by early Mon. In advance of the front, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected Fri night and Sat north of 26N and west of 133W. A set of NW swell behind the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the NW corner of the forecast area Sat before subsiding Sun. Another set of long period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon night. $$ ERA