000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130917
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 14N92W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 16N98.5W to 10N115W to 12N130W to 
11N134W. The ITCZ continues from 11N134W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 
77W and 81W, and from 07N to 13N between 85W and 90W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to
17.5N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 07.5N to 11N between 92W and 108W, and from 08N to 
13.5N between 112.5W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough
near 16N98.5W, just off the coast of southern Mexico. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 
17.5N between 98W and 104W. Winds are 10-15 kt near the low and 
seas are 5-6 ft. The system is forecast to move west-northwest 
near the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the waters west
of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are likely
occurring to the west of Baja California. Moderate NW to N winds
are occurring between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate near
the aforementioned 1010 mb low pressure. Seas are generally 4-6 
ft in S-SW swell, except 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will continue
offshore Baja California through tonight. Moderate winds between
Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes as well as in the entrance to the 
Gulf of California will diminish slightly this morning. Fresh to
locally strong S to SW winds are expected over the northern Gulf
of California Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, Tropical
Storm Karl, currently located over the Gulf of Mexico, is
forecast to make landfall and move southward near the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec Sat. Although the tropical cyclone is forecast to
dissipate without re-generating in the east Pacific, there is a 
possibility of increased showers and tstorms, and fresh to 
strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

ASCAT satellite data from 13/0215 UTC shows fresh SW winds 
offshore of southern Colombia. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere 
from the southern Costa Rica waters to the Ecuador waters. Gentle
W winds are likely occurring over the offshore waters from 
Guatemala through northern Costa Rica. An altimeter pass from
13/0700 UTC shows seas of 6-7 ft in the fresh wind area. Seas are
5-6 ft elsewhere in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh southwesterly winds offshore Colombia 
and northern Ecuador, and to the south of Panama, are expected to
persist through this evening before diminishing by early Fri. 
Looking ahead, winds could increase to 15-20 kt across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama late in the 
upcoming weekend due to a possible low pressure that could form 
along the monsoon trough. These winds could move into the waters 
between Nicaragua and Guatemala early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 13N137W to beyond 18N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough axis 
from 15N to 18N between 130W and 133W. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data observed fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 15N
to 19N between 129W and 134W. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere from 14N to 22N between 125W and 140W. Recent altimeter
data shows seas of 6-7 ft in the area. A ridge dominates the 
northern forecast waters between this trough and the Baja 
California peninsula. Moderate S-SW winds are south of the 
monsoon trough, where seas are 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds 
and seas of 5-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for light to gentle 
and 4-5 ft in the ridge area over the northern waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will weaken
as it moves west of 140W today. The area of fresh winds on the 
east side of the trough will persist from 15N to 22N between 130W
and 140W through tonight. A ridge will remain in place north of 
the monsoon trough and west of 110W through Fri. A cold front 
will reach the NW corner of the forecast area near 30N140W by 
early Sat morning. The front is forecast to reach from 30N134W to
26N137W early Sun before dissipating by early Mon. In advance of
the front, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected Fri night 
and Sat north of 26N and west of 133W. A set of NW swell behind 
the front will build seas to around 8 ft in the NW corner of the 
forecast area Sat before subsiding Sun. Another set of long 
period NW swell should reach the NW corner of the area by Mon 
night.

$$
Hagen