000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122009
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N80W to along or 
just offshore the remainder of Central America to 1009 mb low 
pressure near 15.5N97.5W to 11N116W to 12N130W to 10N137W. The 
ITCZ continues from 10N137W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N 
between 77W and 80W, from 06N to 10N between 80W and 90W, from 
12N to 18N between 100W and 105W, from 08N to 11N between 113W 
and 121W, from 11N to 19N between 120W and 135W, and from 07N to 
10N between 130W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 15.5N
97.5W. Most of the nearby deep convection is located well to 
the west-northwest of the center. Winds are 15-20 kt near the 
low and seas are 5-6 ft. Any development of this system over the 
next few days is likely to be slow to occur due to unfavorable 
upper-level winds and proximity to land. The system is forecast 
to move west-northwestward to westward near the southern coast of
Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of 
southern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this 
system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
48 hours.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the waters west
of Baja California. Moderate NW to N winds are west of Baja 
California. Similar winds are occurring between Los Cabos and 
Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 
generally 4-6 ft in S-SW swell, except 1-2 ft in the northern and
central Gulf of California and 3-5 ft near the entrance to the 
Gulf. 

For the forecast, winds offshore Baja California will increase 
to moderate to locally fresh this evening through Thu night. 
Moderate winds are expected tonight between Cabo San Lucas and 
Cabo Corrientes as well as in the entrance to the Gulf of 
California. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds 
are likely over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into 
Sat night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds are from near the Azuero
Peninsula southward to the Equator, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW across the offshore waters. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the monsoon 
trough prevail offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwesterly winds offshore
Colombia and northern Ecuador, and well to the south of Panama 
will diminish late in the week. Looking ahead, winds could 
increase to 15-20 kt across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and
western Panama late in the upcoming weekend due to a possible 
low pressure that could form along the monsoon trough. These 
winds could move into the waters between Nicaragua and Guatemala 
early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 27N140W to 20N139W to 13N133W. An 
area of moderate to fresh E winds extends a few hundred nautical 
miles east of the trough axis as indicated by recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Seas are 6-7 ft in the fresh wind area east 
of the trough axis. A ridge dominates the northern forecast 
waters between this trough and the Baja California peninsula. 
Moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough, where seas 
are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail 
elsewhere, except 4-5 ft in the ridge area over the northern 
waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move 
westward and dissipate tonight as it reaches 140W. An area of 
moderate to fresh winds on the east side of the trough will 
continue moving westward, in tandem with the trough through 
tonight. A ridge will remain in place north of the monsoon trough
and west of 110W through Fri. The ridge may weaken slightly on 
Sat as a cold front reaches the NW corner of the forecast area 
near 30N140W, with moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the
front Fri night through Sat. A set of NW swell may build seas to
around 8 ft in the NW waters for the end of the weekend into
early next week.

$$
Lewitsky