000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1009 mb low pressure near 14.5N97.5W to 10N114W to 12N126W to 10N134W. The ITCZ continues from 10N134W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 97W and 104W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 11N between 77W and 88W, from 13N to 17N between 118W and 132W, and from 08N to 10N between 137W and 140W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 97W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1009 mb low is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14.5N97.5W. Associated numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 97W and 104W, including over coastal areas of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan. Winds are 15-20 kt near the low and seas are 6-7 ft. Any development of this system will be slow to occur as it moves westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the waters west of Baja California. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show moderate NW to N winds west of Baja California. Similar winds are likely occurring between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except 1-2 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California and 3-5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, winds to the west of Baja California will diminish slightly to gentle to moderate later this morning, then increase to moderate to locally fresh this evening through Thu night. Moderate winds are expected today and tonight between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes as well as in the entrance to the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat night. Seas are forecast to remain 6 ft or less through the weekend for the entire Mexico offshore waters area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows mainly moderate SW to W winds across the offshore waters from Ecuador to Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds likely prevail for the remainder of the Central America offshore waters. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas around 6 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, with seas of 5-6 ft offshore of Central America. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the monsoon trough prevail offshore northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh late today through Thu offshore Colombia and northern Ecuador, and well to the south of Panama before diminishing late in the week. Looking ahead, winds could increase to 15-20 kt across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama late in the upcoming weekend due to a possible low pressure that could form along the monsoon trough. These winds could move into the waters between Nicaragua and Guatemala early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 25N138.5W to 20N136W to 13N132W. Recent ASCAT data show an area of fresh E winds extending a few hundred nautical miles east of the trough axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 123W and 132W. Seas are 6-7 ft in the fresh wind area east of the trough axis. A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters between this trough and the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 95W and 120W, where seas are 6-7 ft. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except 4-5 ft in the ridge area over the northern waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move westward through today and dissipate tonight as it reaches 140W. An area of moderate to fresh winds on the east side of the trough will continue moving westward, in tandem with the trough through tonight. A ridge will remain in place N of the monsoon trough and W of 110W through Fri. The ridge may weaken slightly on Sat as a cold front reaches the NW corner of the forecast area near 30N140W. $$ Hagen