000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120404
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1008 mb low pressure 
located near 14.5N97W to 10N115W to 12N124W to 10N133W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N133W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 97W
and 103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 10N between 81W and 86W, from 08N to 13N
between 101W and 106W, from 11.5N to 18N between 113W and 133W, 
and from 08N to 10N between 134W and 140W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 07N to 11N between 110W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 14.5N97W.
Associated numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is 
noted from 14N to 18N between 97W and 103W, including over the
Mexican state of Guerrero. Winds are 15-25 kt near and to the 
east of the low and seas are 6-8 ft. Any development of this 
system will be slow to occur as it moves westward to west-
northwestward, near the coast of southern and southwestern 
Mexico, through the end of the week. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of 
southern Mexico during the next day or so. The latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 5 days.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the waters west
of Baja California producing moderate NW to N winds. Similar 
winds are noted between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes, with 
light to gentle winds along the remainder of the coast of 
Mexico, outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are generally 4-6
ft, except 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 1-2 ft in
the northern and central Gulf of California and 3-5 ft near the 
entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, moderate NW to N winds will continue to 
dominate the waters west of Baja California, increasing to
moderate to locally fresh Wed evening through Thu night. Similar
winds are expected during this time between Cabo San Lucas and 
Cabo Corrientes as well as in the entrance to the Gulf of 
California. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds
are likely to develop over the northern Gulf of California Fri 
night into Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is inducing
moderate to locally fresh S winds offshore Guatemala. Seas in
this area are 6-7 ft primarily in long period S to SW swell. Seas
are also 6-7 ft offshore El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to 
locally moderate SW to W winds prevail offshore the remainder of 
Central America. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds prevail
offshore Colombia and Ecuador. Seas are 5-6 ft in the offshore
waters from Costa Rica through Ecuador.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight into early 
Wed. SW winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh late Wed
through Thu offshore Colombia and northern Ecuador, and well to
the south of Panama. Looking ahead, winds could increase to 
15-20 kt across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western 
Panama late in the upcoming weekend as a low pressure potentially
forms along the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 26N138W to 14N132W. An area of 
fresh NE to E winds extends E from the trough axis to about 125W,
mainly from 15N to 21N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 127W and 133W. A 
ridge dominates the northern forecast waters between this trough 
and the Baja California peninsula. Seas are generally 5-7 ft 
across most of the waters W of 110W, except 4-5 ft in the ridge
area over the northern waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place N of the monsoon
trough and W of 110W through Fri. The ridge is forecast to weaken
on Sat, as a low pressure system, with an associated cold front,
approaches the NW corner of the forecast area. The aforementioned
surface trough will move westward through Wed and dissipate Wed 
night. An area of moderate to fresh winds on the east side of the
trough will continue moving westward, in tandem with the trough.

$$
Hagen