000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N84 to 1008 mb low pressure located near 14N96W to 09N113W to 08N110W to 12N124W to 09N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 98W and 100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere N of 14N between 93W and 98W, and from 08N to 14N between 99W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 120W and 130W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with a surface trough and Julia's remnants. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed on the surface map near 14N96W. A surface trough extends from the low enter to about 10N96W. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds from 14N to 16N between 95W and 96W with seas of 8-10 ft, and fresh to strong SE winds from 13N to 15N between 92W and 94W with seas to 8 ft. Development, if any, of this system is likely to be slow to occur due to dry air aloft and marginal upper-level winds. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico, through the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds. Similar winds are noted between Los Cabos and Cabo Corriente, with light winds along the remainder of the coast of Mexico, outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are generally 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California light winds prevail with seas of 1-2 ft in the northern and central parts of the Gulf, and 3-5 ft near to the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds will continue to dominate the waters west of Baja California the remainder of the week. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Gentle winds are expected in the Gulf of California, with the exception of moderate NW to N winds across the southern part of the Gulf through Thu. Some fresh to locally strong S to SW winds appear possible over the northern Gulf of California Fri night into Sat night as a low pressure develops up there. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S winds are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador with seas of 6-8 ft primarily in long period SW swell. Similar conditions are occurring well offshore of Nicaragua. Elsewhere, from Costa Rica through Ecuador, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds prevail with seas of 5-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, winds and seas will begin to diminish across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight into Wed. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range are expected elsewhere through at least Fri. During the upcoming weekend, winds could increase to 15-20 kt across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama as a low pressure may develop along the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 24N134W to 12N131W based on recent scatterometer data that clearly show the wind shift associated with the trough. An area of fresh easterly winds is on the E side of the trough to about 129W from 16N-21N. A few showers are near the trough axis. A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters between this trough and the Baja California peninsula. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the waters W of 110W per altimeter data. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place N of the monsoon trough and W of 110W through Fri. The ridge is forecast to weaken on Sat, as low pressure system, with an associated cold front, approaches the NW corner of the forecast area. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward through Wed and dissipate Wed evening. An area of moderate to fresh winds, from about 14N to 21N, will move in tandem with the trough. $$ GR